And then what? Housing and demographics are in the mix of factors influencing how the wave of ageing will affect regions differently.
Almost a quarter of the healthcare workforce is aged 55 and over, and some regions will feel the loss of retiring workers earlier than others, according to new data released today.
The research comes from “spatial data intelligence organisation” Informed Decisions, and shows that one factor to consider is that we have an overlapping workforce.
“[A]round 460,000 providers and workers frequently operate across aged care, disability, home care and related services, drawing from the same limited labour pool,” said the researchers.
“As the population moves into later life, demand for aged care workers will rise sharply just as the available workforce is ageing, dispersing, or in some regions, shrinking.”
Informed Decisions chief economist Rob Hall said that without staff, facilities couldn’t keep their doors open, regardless of demand.
“The challenge is compounded by an ageing workforce, with many workers approaching retirement and expected to exit the sector within the coming decade,” he said.
“The aged care sector must prepare for rising demand at the same time it replaces around 23% of its workforce due to retirements.”
Growth in the aged and healthcare sector workforce in past years has been due largely to more women entering the workforce, making up three-quarters of workers in the sector, but that growth has now flattened out and cannot be relied upon to replace those leaving the workforce due to retirement, let alone the increased numbers required to serve the ageing population, the report said.
The report showed that in some areas the number is even higher than the national average of 23%, with 30% or more aged 55 and over in the WA wheat belt; Barossa, Yorke, Mid North and South East of South Australia; Richmond-Tweed, South East, Southern Highlands, Shoalhaven, Mid North Coast, Coffs Harbour-Grafton and the Capital Region in NSW; Warnambool and South West and Hume in Victoria.
“While population ageing is a national trend, it will unfold differently across states and territories due to variations in local migration patterns, housing affordability, economic conditions and existing age structures. Some regions will feel the pressure earlier, while others will experience a sharper acceleration,” the researchers said.
“The data shows several population hotspots across Australia which are projected to experience particularly strong growth in residents aged 65+ between now (January 2026) and 2046. ‑running demographic forces are now accelerating, with significant implications for housing, health systems, aged care, community infrastructure and labour markets.
“Today’s family-dominated suburbs will become far more age-diverse, reflecting a decisive shift in the national age profile. Australia’s median age has already risen from 37.2 years in 2016 to 38.4 years in 2021 and is projected to reach around 41 by 2045.
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“These long-running demographic forces are now accelerating, with significant implications for housing, health systems, aged care, community infrastructure and labour markets.”
The cost of housing was an important factor in workforce shortages, with houses prices in regions with high aged care demand now 30 to 40 times the median annual income of a healthcare worker, the organisation said.
The report found distinct regional patterns by looking at retirement risk, labour-force depth and housing affordability across six regional profiles.
It said regional coastal retirement hotspots were experiencing the highest demand for services, with a constrained workforce and high housing costs. Inner city areas were too expensive for workers to live in, outer suburbs were seeing population growth with more young families moving in and healthcare infrastructure was not keeping up.
Inland regional centres and outer metro areas were faring better, with more affordable housing and fewer people nearing retirement, but they could fall prey to labour market competition. Regional cities and “near capital cities” were “more resilient”, the report said. They had growing healthcare industries, proximity to specialist services, affordable housing and attracted younger workers.
Unsurprisingly, remote and inland regions faced “significant long-term challenges”.
Read the full report here.